The Smart Energy Council has used the Coalition’s nuclear plan and commissioned report from Frontier Economics for the following assumptions:

13,000 megawatts (MW) of nuclear capacity.

• The two sites for Small Modular Reactors are missing from the Frontier analysis, reducing from a 14,000 MW plan to 13,000 MW.
• This analysis excluded the site in Collie Western Australia, creating a National Energy Market-only analysis.

A 90% capacity factor, to be in-line with the Frontier report.

• This is just above the highest end of the range used by CSIRO, which is 53% to 89%.
• Nuclear is stated as a ‘baseload’ generation source “which produces electricity more or less continually”.

We note the assumption that the lives of the current coal power plants in the NEM will be stretched out until nuclear power plants replace them.

• The nuclear power plants are proposed to be on the same sites as the coal-fired power stations.
• This requires a decommissioning and demolition of the coal generators, before a lengthy build period if they are to be located on the same sites.
• Additionally, no appropriate costing was factored-in to the modelling for keeping these coal plants operating beyond their design life as proposed by both the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and the plant owners, especially accounting for significant maintenance and upgrades that will be needed to keep the aging coal powered generation fleet operating.
• Unless the coalition plans to either stop Australian households from installing solar on their houses and saving thousands of dollars per year, or allow a period of blackouts due to lack of generation, we will assume that energy generation build-out will continue until the nuclear power plants are commissioned.
• This will require the shoe-horning of the nuclear power generators into the NEM once they have been commissioned.

Rooftop solar PV assumptions:

• The standard household solar system is 6.6kilowatt (kW) which produces 30-50 kilowatt hours (kWh) per day in summer and 15-25 kWh per day in winter.
• The average size of new solar installations is close to 10kW.
• For a 6.6kW system, there is an annual average of 25 kWh per day.
• For a 10kW system, there is an annual average of 40 kWh per day.
• The default power bill across the NEM is $2,007 for FY 2023-24 from DCCEEW modelling.
• The average bill saving from solar ranges across the NEM, with an average of $1,000 for FY 2023-24.
• The current amount of rooftop solar energy in the NEM has reached numerous records in the last few months:
  • Maximum instantaneous Victorian rooftop PV share at 67.8% on Saturday 12 October 2024 at 13:00 hrs.
  • Maximum instantaneous South Australian rooftop PV share at 112.9% on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 13:15 hrs.
  • Maximum instantaneous Queensland rooftop PV share at 51.9% on Sunday 18 August 2024 at 12:40 hrs.
  • Maximum instantaneous NEM rooftop PV share at 50.4% on Saturday 12 October 2024 at 13:00 hrs.
• Due to the inflexibility of nuclear generation, when there is excess generation from rooftop solar, it will need to be ramped down, despite the National Electricity Market usually setting the price of generation.
• Noting rooftop solar is the cheapest option by a long way, forcing out more expensive forms of generation such as gas or coal.
• It is assumed that rooftop solar will be shut off during daylight hours to allow for nuclear energy to enter the system without causing grid instability and hence blackouts from the excess capacity created.
  • This is due to the ease of solar shutdown with the emergence of solar backstop measures, as well as market operators not having to compensate households for solar shutdown.
  • Rooftop solar is the immediate victim as larger stations would be able to defend their right to produce power.

Cost impacts:

If solar will be shut off 67% of the time for all solar homes, this will significantly impact the savings recovered by these homes that have invested in solar.

The median power bills for each state were sourced from the IEEFA Report Nuclear in Australia would increase power bills.

• Victoria: $1,565
• South-East Queensland: $2,220
• New South Wales: $2,074
• South Australia: $2,363

The solar savings for each household are taken from DCCEEW estimates in October 2023.

• Victoria: $687
• South-East Queensland: $866
• New South Wales: $1,015
• South Australia: $930

The additional cost of electricity from nuclear is taken from the mean price increase across the relevant examples for each state as outlined in the IEEFA Report Nuclear in Australia would increase power bills. Noting, this amount was for the median household power bill and is reduced in proportion to power bills for houses with solar.

• Victoria: $656
• South-East Queensland: $720
• New South Wales: $676
• South Australia: $607

The additional cost from solar shutdown is due to the impact of nuclear power plants resulting in solar being shut down for 67% of the year, and this additional energy will need to be purchased at a higher cost rate.

• Victoria: $740
• South-East Queensland: $980
• New South Wales: $917
• South Australia: $990

The table calculating the average across the four NEM jurisdictions is shown below.